The Use of Time Series Analysis to Foretell the Number of Patients with Malignant Neoplasms in Ninewah Governorate

Abstract

There are limited published data regarding the recent incidence trends of patients with malignant neoplasms in ninewah governorate. This study aims to analyze the time series properties using the (BOX & Jenkins) approach in the analysis (estimation, identification, and selecting the appropriateness of model for foretelling). In this study the capabilities of A time series are employed to determine the best and most efficient statistical model for the purpose of foretelling the number of people with this disease. The findings of the data analysis indicated that ARIMA (2,1,0) is the most suitable model for foretelling the quantity of people with malignant neoplasms in Ninewah Governorate depending on the data for the period of (2016 - 2021). The results explained the type of this function are  an nonstationary series on average, and there is a clear general trend in the series. The stationarity of the time series was achieved after taking the first difference of the data, and after matching the auto and partial correlation coefficients of the time series with the theoretical behavior of the auto and partial correlation. The number of patients with malignant neoplasms was foretold using this model.